Presidential election forecasts :news http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/ en-us Andrea Moro hourly 1 http://backend.userland.com/rss now updating every hour http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/32 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:56:28 GMT however, the row regarding the bradley effect is only updated manually. http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/32 bradley effect added http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/31 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:51:31 GMT estimates here the bradley effect to be between 2 to 3% in a set of recent elections. ]]> simulating what would happen in my simulaitons if every state experienced a 2% or 3% "bradley effect", that is if polls overestimated obama's share by 2 or 3%. David Stromberg <a href="http://www.iies.su.se/~stromber/Bradley.pdf">estimates here</a> the bradley effect to be between 2 to 3% in a set of recent elections. http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/31 senate added http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/30 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 04:34:17 GMT wanted to do that for a long time :-) http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/30 I have added http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/29 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 22:22:30 GMT a worst-case scenario for obama, in which he loses 7 pivotal states where McCain is concentrating campaigning efforts. Karl Rove wrote an article about that, he's right that this is a possibility for McCain, even if quite remote. http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/29 an overview of political prediction models http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/28 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:11:28 GMT Josep Colomer's blog ]]> from <a href="http://jcolomer.blogspot.com/2008/09/can-obama-win-in-american-political.html">Josep Colomer</a>'s blog http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/28 Florida added http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/27 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 02:46:02 GMT to the conditional probs... somehow it didn&#39;t make the first cut http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/27 i added more interesting conditional probabilities http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/26 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:11:40 GMT including obama losing more pivotal states. I am now reporting only if they differ from the main statistics by more than 15%. Suggestions for more welcome! http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/26 new colors on the chart map http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/25 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:43:18 GMT much more readable now. Unfortunately the google chart api only lets me interpolate between 3 colors, so I can&#39;t do much better than this. http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/news/25