final prediction vs. mccain

Obama's expected votes 327.3
electoral votes, standard deviation 21.6
electoral votes, if candidates win the
states where they are ahead in the poll

Needed to win: 270 votes; last update: 2008-11-05 00:11:01

Obama's winning probability 99.9%
But if obama loses ...
... Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia 88.8%
... CO,FL,OH,VA,NV,MO,and NC 46.1%
if the bradley effect is
...3% in every state 259.3 votes, prob 16.9%
...2% in every state 306.5 votes, prob 62.8%
prob. from 90.2%
(pivotal state: New Mexico - using a methodology suggested by noteconomics)
Electoral votes distribution  mccain wins    obama wins  


expected number of electoral votes

trend in mean electoral votes

probability of winning

trend in probabilities of winning

The 2004 site in the press

interesting election links