## news

06/02/08 a server outage
on saturday caused some disruptions. I'll try to get the predictions up as soon as possible.

09/15/08 an overview of political prediction models
from Josep Colomer's blog

11/03/08 bradley effect added
simulating what would happen in my simulaitons if every state experienced a 2% or 3% "bradley effect", that is if polls overestimated obama's share by 2 or 3%. David Stromberg estimates here the bradley effect to be between 2 to 3% in a set of recent elections.

08/25/08 conditional probabilities
are now starting to get interesting. According to the model, mccain only needs to get pennsylvania. Sam Wang has now realized these computations are easy, except he doesn't compute the interesting ones. I've done conditional probs even for the 2004 elections.

05/29/08 electoral-vote
has an interesting post analyzing this saturday's meeting of the Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee to decide the fate of challenges to the party's decision
to penalize Florida and Michigan.

09/06/08 Florida added
to the conditional probs... somehow it didn't make the first cut

05/21/08 I added conditional probabilities
to the main table, computed assuming mccain wins pivotal states ohio or florida. Clinton has a good chance, but it looks like Mccain should concentrate his efforts in Florida

08/27/08 i added more interesting conditional probabilities
including obama losing more pivotal states. I am now reporting only if they differ from the main statistics by more than 15%. Suggestions for more welcome!

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