06/07/08 I've taken down Clinton's predictions. For the nostalgic, the charts with data up to the day of the Clinton's concession speech are here
06/07/08 just added obama's share map reporting vote shares from the raw polls (ignoring undecided). Thanks, google chart API!
06/06/08 I corrected Obama's
predictions using the new url; Andy Tanenbaum of electoral-vote.com confimed that the old urls are retired. I'm still keeping hillary's results because an op-ed on todays' nyt reports a similar style predictions from a competing web site. They predict obama losing in November against McCain, and Hillary winning; however, I believe their methodology has little theoretical bearing.
06/06/08 I believe my poll data source has changed url, and has stopped updating the "obama" polls file, reporting only presidential pollls as rep vs. dem. According to the most recent polls, obama would have 91.8% probability of winning, and 51.5% even if mccain wins Ohio. I have emailed him to clarify the url issue, but haven't updated the data on the tables.
As soon as hillary says something, I will take down hillary's data from the main site. I bet this will boost linkage of the site.
06/02/08 a server outage on saturday caused some disruptions. I'll try to get the predictions up as soon as possible.
05/29/08 electoral-vote has an interesting post analyzing this saturday's meeting of the Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee to decide the fate of challenges to the party's decision to penalize Florida and Michigan.
05/21/08 I added conditional probabilities to the main table, computed assuming mccain wins pivotal states ohio or florida. Clinton has a good chance, but it looks like Mccain should concentrate his efforts in Florida
05/20/08 I have added the electoral votes distribution chart to the main homepage display. I will explain what it is when I find some time :-)
