08/25/08 conditional probabilities are now starting to get interesting. According to the model, mccain only needs to get pennsylvania. Sam Wang has now realized these computations are easy, except he doesn't compute the interesting ones. I've done conditional probs even for the 2004 elections.
08/17/08 My "competitor" Sam Wang has released his 2008 site, fancily called the "Princeton Election Consortium". I guess that makes this the "Vanderbilt Election Consortium", but I have to double check with Vb's bosses. Good job overall, only one design mistake in my opinion: too much emphasis on the blog and too little on the data.
06/07/08 I've taken down Clinton's predictions. For the nostalgic, the charts with data up to the day of the Clinton's concession speech are here
06/07/08 just added obama's share map reporting vote shares from the raw polls (ignoring undecided). Thanks, google chart API!
06/06/08 I corrected Obama's
predictions using the new url; Andy Tanenbaum of electoral-vote.com confimed that the old urls are retired. I'm still keeping hillary's results because an op-ed on todays' nyt reports a similar style predictions from a competing web site. They predict obama losing in November against McCain, and Hillary winning; however, I believe their methodology has little theoretical bearing.
06/06/08 I believe my poll data source has changed url, and has stopped updating the "obama" polls file, reporting only presidential pollls as rep vs. dem. According to the most recent polls, obama would have 91.8% probability of winning, and 51.5% even if mccain wins Ohio. I have emailed him to clarify the url issue, but haven't updated the data on the tables.
As soon as hillary says something, I will take down hillary's data from the main site. I bet this will boost linkage of the site.
06/02/08 a server outage on saturday caused some disruptions. I'll try to get the predictions up as soon as possible.
05/29/08 electoral-vote has an interesting post analyzing this saturday's meeting of the Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee to decide the fate of challenges to the party's decision to penalize Florida and Michigan.
