conditional probabilities

are now starting to get interesting. According to the model, mccain only needs to get pennsylvania. Sam Wang has now realized these computations are easy, except he doesn't compute the interesting ones. I've done conditional probs even for the 2004 elections.
Posted by: Andrea Moro on August 25, 2008 5:09:20 PM
Updated: 22 Aug 17 23:19

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conditional probabilities Anonymous August 28, 2008 09:03 PM
It's obvious enough: Gore and Kerry both won Pennsylvania -- and lost. There are states "redder" than Pennsylvania that have lots of electoral votes -- Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. If Obama can't win Pennsylvania for reasons other than a favorite son being nominated as VP, then Obama can win none of those "redder" states and is going to go down to a smashing defeat. By winning any two of those States and New Hampshire, Iowa, and New Mexico -- Obama wins. It couldn't be simpler.

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Re: conditional probabilities Andrea Moro September 11, 2008 10:03 AM
true. Only the interesting ones are reported now

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conditional probabilities Anonymous September 05, 2008 01:28 PM
where are they? I'd like to look at them.

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Re: conditional probabilities Andrea Moro September 11, 2008 10:03 AM
On the main page, under "but if obama loses ...."

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