It's obvious enough: Gore and Kerry both won Pennsylvania -- and lost. There are states "redder" than Pennsylvania that have lots of electoral votes -- Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. If Obama can't win Pennsylvania for reasons other than a favorite son being nominated as VP, then Obama can win none of those "redder" states and is going to go down to a smashing defeat. By winning any two of those States and New Hampshire, Iowa, and New Mexico -- Obama wins. It couldn't be simpler.
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