whoami

My name is Andrea Moro and I am an Associate professor of Economics at Vanderbilt University. More information about myself, including my professional cv, can be found on my personal page: http://www.andreamoro.net.

I have started this project as a hobby for the 2004 elections, when I was at the University of Minnesota. The project obtained a decent success, and many have asked to repeat it this year.

Please do not email unless necessary. I will do my best to find the time to clarifiy the methodology and procedure on the appropriate page.

If you are Italian,  and do not yet know about it, please visit noisefromamerika.org, a group blog (written in Italian) I edit together with 5 Italian economists about italian politics and economics.

Thanks for visiting.

 

Updated: 04 Jul 08 18:58

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Bronzo Bronzeador Anonymous July 01, 2008 04:56 PM
On the first page of the site, Obama's unconstrained likelihood of winning is given as 98.2%. His likelihood of winning if McCain wins Florida is also given as 98.2%. This would seem like it can only be true if McCain has a 100% chance of winning Florida, which should not be the case given your methodology. Is there a difference between the two figures which is being rounded away? Is there something else that I am missing?

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