Url format, past polls: /var/includes/Storage/rawdata-mm-dd.html
Polls obtained from latest state polls from electoral-vote.com Shares computed ignoring third candidates and undecided
| State | Electoral votes | Most recent polls Obama-McCain |
Obama share from polls (%) | Obama's probability of winning in November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| California | 55 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Florida | 27 | 58- 42 | 58.0 | 100.0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 48- 51 | 48.5 | 16.1 |
| Iowa | 7 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas | 6 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 42- 57 | 42.4 | 0.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Maryland | 10 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Montana | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New York | 31 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 61- 39 | 61.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Texas | 34 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 67- 32 | 67.7 | 100.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 46- 56 | 45.1 | 0.1 |
| Washington | 11 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 0- 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
% victories obtained assuming undecided split between candidates in the same proportion of those expressing opinion
probability of winning the state obtained assuming 3% margin of error (~600 voters sampled)
