Url format, past polls: /var/includes/Storage/rawdata-mm-dd.html
Polls obtained from latest state polls from electoral-vote.com Shares computed ignoring third candidates and undecided
| State | Electoral votes | Most recent polls Obama-McCain |
Obama share from polls (%) | Obama's probability of winning in November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 36- 51 | 41.4 | 0.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 41- 45 | 47.7 | 6.4 |
| Arizona | 10 | 40- 49 | 44.9 | 0.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 41- 45 | 47.7 | 6.4 |
| California | 55 | 58- 30 | 65.9 | 100.0 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 52- 35 | 59.8 | 100.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 49- 44 | 52.7 | 96.0 |
| D.C. | 3 | 90- 9 | 90.9 | 100.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 50- 41 | 54.9 | 99.9 |
| Florida | 27 | 41- 48 | 46.1 | 0.5 |
| Georgia | 15 | 43- 53 | 44.8 | 0.0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 61- 31 | 66.3 | 100.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 39- 52 | 42.9 | 0.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 60- 31 | 65.9 | 100.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 48- 47 | 50.5 | 63.3 |
| Iowa | 7 | 49- 45 | 52.1 | 91.8 |
| Kansas | 6 | 37- 47 | 44.0 | 0.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 35- 51 | 40.7 | 0.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 36- 52 | 40.9 | 0.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 55- 33 | 62.5 | 100.0 |
| Maryland | 10 | 53- 40 | 57.0 | 100.0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 43- 50 | 46.2 | 0.7 |
| Michigan | 17 | 48- 42 | 53.3 | 98.5 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 54- 37 | 59.3 | 100.0 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 53- 33 | 61.6 | 100.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 44- 50 | 46.8 | 1.8 |
| Montana | 3 | 39- 47 | 45.3 | 0.1 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 36- 52 | 40.9 | 0.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 42- 45 | 48.3 | 12.9 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 50- 39 | 56.2 | 100.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 49- 33 | 59.8 | 100.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 47- 39 | 54.7 | 99.9 |
| New York | 31 | 60- 29 | 67.4 | 100.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 43- 45 | 48.9 | 22.7 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 38- 44 | 46.3 | 0.8 |
| Ohio | 20 | 48- 46 | 51.1 | 75.5 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 38- 52 | 42.2 | 0.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 48- 45 | 51.6 | 85.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 46- 42 | 52.3 | 93.1 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 53- 38 | 58.2 | 100.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 39- 48 | 44.8 | 0.0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 34- 51 | 40.0 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 36- 51 | 41.4 | 0.0 |
| Texas | 34 | 39- 48 | 44.8 | 0.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 33- 52 | 38.8 | 0.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 63- 29 | 68.5 | 100.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 49- 47 | 51.0 | 75.2 |
| Washington | 11 | 55- 40 | 57.9 | 100.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 37- 45 | 45.1 | 0.1 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 52- 39 | 57.1 | 100.0 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 40- 53 | 43.0 | 0.0 |
% victories obtained assuming undecided split between candidates in the same proportion of those expressing opinion
probability of winning the state obtained assuming 3% margin of error (~600 voters sampled)
