Presidential election forecasts :charts http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net/ en-us Andrea Moro hourly 1 http://backend.userland.com/rss Today's predictions http://presidentforecast.andreamoro.net Sorry, only basic rss info for now.
Obama's expected votes 327.3
electoral votes, standard deviation 21.6
electoral votes, if candidates win the
states where they are ahead in the poll		 306.5

Needed to win: 270 votes; last update: 2008-11-05 00:11:01

Obama's winning probability 99.9%
But if obama loses ...
... Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia 88.8%
... CO,FL,OH,VA,NV,MO,and NC 46.1%
 
if the bradley effect is
...3% in every state 259.3 votes, prob 16.9%
...2% in every state 306.5 votes, prob 62.8%
 
prob. from intrade.com 90.2%
(pivotal state: New Mexico - using a methodology suggested by noteconomics)
 
Electoral votes distribution  mccain wins    obama wins  

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