final prediction vs. mccain
Obama's expected votes | 327.3 | ![]() |
electoral votes, standard deviation | 21.6 | |
electoral votes, if candidates win the states where they are ahead in the poll |
306.5 | |
Needed to win: 270 votes; last update: 2008-11-05 00:11:01 | ||
Obama's winning probability | 99.9% | ![]() |
But if obama loses ... | ||
... Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia | 88.8% | |
... CO,FL,OH,VA,NV,MO,and NC | 46.1% | |
if the bradley effect is | ||
...3% in every state | 259.3 votes, prob 16.9% | |
...2% in every state | 306.5 votes, prob 62.8% | |
prob. from intrade.com | 90.2% | |
(pivotal state: New Mexico - using a methodology suggested by noteconomics) | ||
Electoral votes distribution | mccain wins obama wins |
![](var/includes/Storage/big-distr.png)
trends
expected number of electoral votes
![trend in mean electoral votes](var/includes/Storage/medmean.png)
probability of winning
![trend in probabilities of winning](var/includes/Storage/medprob.png)