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final prediction vs. mccain

trends

The 2004 site in the press

interesting election links

democratic senate

obama vote shares

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11/03/08 now updating every hour however, the row regarding the bradley effect is only updated manually.

11/03/08 bradley effect added simulating what would happen in my simulaitons if every state experienced a 2% or 3% "bradley effect", that is if polls overestimated obama's share by 2 or 3%. David Stromberg estimates here the bradley effect to be between 2 to 3% in a set of recent elections.

10/17/08 senate added wanted to do that for a long time :-)

10/17/08 I have added a worst-case scenario for obama, in which he loses 7 pivotal states where McCain is concentrating campaigning efforts. Karl Rove wrote an article about that, he's right that this is a possibility for McCain, even if quite remote.

09/15/08 an overview of political prediction models from Josep Colomer's blog

09/06/08 Florida added to the conditional probs... somehow it didn't make the first cut

08/27/08 i added more interesting conditional probabilities including obama losing more pivotal states. I am now reporting only if they differ from the main statistics by more than 15%. Suggestions for more welcome!

08/26/08 new colors on the chart map much more readable now. Unfortunately the google chart api only lets me interpolate between 3 colors, so I can't do much better than this.

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