Most recent state polls		Shares from polls (%)		Probability of winning in November
state	votes	Clinton-McCain	Obama-McCain	Clinton	Obama	Clinton	Obama
Alabama	9	36- 55	36- 55	39.6	39.6	0.0	0.0
Alaska	3	37- 55	42- 49	40.2	46.2	0.0	0.6
Arizona	10	37- 53	38- 47	41.1	44.7	0.0	0.0
Arkansas	6	53- 39	33- 57	57.6	36.7	100.0	0.0
California	55	47- 42	50- 43	52.8	53.8	96.6	99.3
Connecticut	7	45- 42	52- 35	51.7	59.8	86.9	100.0
Colorado	9	36- 50	46- 43	41.9	51.7	0.0	86.4
D.C.	3	90- 9	90- 9	90.9	90.9	100.0	100.0
Delaware	3	46- 41	50- 41	52.9	54.9	96.9	99.9
Florida	27	49- 41	43- 44	54.4	49.4	99.8	35.2
Georgia	15	37- 48	39- 53	43.5	42.4	0.0	0.0
Hawaii	4	43- 39	61- 31	52.4	66.3	94.4	100.0
Idaho	4	27- 63	39- 52	30.0	42.9	0.0	0.0
Illinois	21	48- 37	60- 31	56.5	65.9	100.0	100.0
Indiana	11	41- 52	43- 51	44.1	45.7	0.0	0.3
Iowa	7	42- 45	44- 42	48.3	51.2	12.9	77.3
Kansas	6	39- 53	34- 55	42.4	38.2	0.0	0.0
Kentucky	8	41- 53	33- 58	43.6	36.3	0.0	0.0
Louisiana	9	36- 58	41- 52	38.3	44.1	0.0	0.0
Maine	4	47- 42	49- 39	52.8	55.7	96.6	100.0
Maryland	10	49- 40	53- 40	55.1	57.0	100.0	100.0
Missouri	11	43- 45	41- 47	48.9	46.6	22.7	1.3
Michigan	17	44- 44	44- 45	50.0	49.4	50.0	35.6
Minnesota	10	47- 42	52- 38	52.8	57.8	96.6	100.0
Massachusetts	12	55- 36	51- 39	60.4	56.7	100.0	100.0
Mississippi	6	42- 51	41- 54	45.2	43.2	0.1	0.0
Montana	3	36- 54	43- 48	40.0	47.3	0.0	3.6
Nebraska	5	30- 57	42- 45	34.5	48.3	0.0	12.9
Nevada	5	38- 49	43- 48	43.7	47.3	0.0	3.6
New Hampshire	4	44- 47	41- 51	48.4	44.6	14.0	0.0
New Jersey	15	52- 38	56- 32	57.8	63.6	100.0	100.0
New Mexico	5	46- 49	44- 50	48.4	46.8	14.9	1.8
New York	31	60- 31	52- 35	65.9	59.8	100.0	100.0
North Carolina	15	40- 43	45- 48	48.2	48.4	11.7	14.5
North Dakota	3	33- 53	38- 44	38.4	46.3	0.0	0.8
Ohio	20	48- 38	42- 43	55.8	49.4	100.0	34.8
Oklahoma	7	42- 50	34- 57	45.7	37.4	0.2	0.0
Oregon	7	46- 40	52- 38	53.5	57.8	98.8	100.0
Pennsylvania	21	49- 38	46- 39	56.3	54.1	100.0	99.6
Rhode Island	4	54- 37	53- 38	59.3	58.2	100.0	100.0
South Carolina	8	42- 48	45- 48	46.7	48.4	1.5	14.5
South Dakota	3	30- 59	34- 51	33.7	40.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	11	38- 52	31- 58	42.2	34.8	0.0	0.0
Texas	34	38- 53	39- 52	41.8	42.9	0.0	0.0
Utah	5	27- 65	39- 50	29.3	43.8	0.0	0.0
Vermont	3	49- 39	63- 29	55.7	68.5	100.0	100.0
Virginia	13	41- 47	44- 47	46.6	48.4	1.3	14.0
Washington	11	49- 45	54- 42	52.1	56.2	91.8	100.0
West Virginia	5	47- 42	35- 53	52.8	39.8	96.6	0.0
Wisconsin	10	43- 47	43- 47	47.8	47.8	7.2	7.2
Wyoming	3	28- 61	35- 54	31.5	39.3	0.0	0.0