Most recent state polls Shares from polls (%) Probability of winning
in November
statevotes Clinton-McCain Obama-McCain Clinton Obama ClintonObama
Alabama 9 34- 60 32- 64 36.2 33.3 0.0 0.0
Alaska 3 32- 57 43- 48 36.0 47.3 0.0 3.6
Arizona 10 34- 56 33- 55 37.8 37.5 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 6 43- 50 30- 59 46.2 33.7 0.7 0.0
California 55 53- 40 50- 43 57.0 53.8 100.0 99.3
Connecticut 7 45- 42 52- 35 51.7 59.8 86.9 100.0
Colorado 9 38- 52 46- 46 42.2 50.0 0.0 50.0
D.C. 3 90- 9 90- 9 90.9 90.9 100.0 100.0
Delaware 3 46- 41 50- 41 52.9 54.9 96.9 99.9
Florida 27 45- 44 38- 53 50.6 41.8 64.1 0.0
Georgia 15 34- 54 40- 53 38.6 43.0 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 4 43- 39 61- 31 52.4 66.3 94.4 100.0
Idaho 4 27- 63 39- 52 30.0 42.9 0.0 0.0
Illinois 21 48- 37 60- 31 56.5 65.9 100.0 100.0
Indiana 11 36- 53 41- 50 40.4 45.1 0.0 0.1
Iowa 7 42- 48 49- 42 46.7 53.8 1.5 99.4
Kansas 6 36- 57 37- 54 38.7 40.7 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 8 46- 48 29- 63 48.9 31.5 24.2 0.0
Louisiana 9 36- 58 41- 52 38.3 44.1 0.0 0.0
Maine 4 47- 42 49- 39 52.8 55.7 96.6 100.0
Maryland 10 49- 40 53- 40 55.1 57.0 100.0 100.0
Missouri 11 47- 46 42- 50 50.5 45.7 63.7 0.2
Michigan 17 37- 46 43- 41 44.6 51.2 0.0 77.9
Minnesota 10 47- 46 49- 43 50.5 53.3 63.7 98.3
Massachusetts 12 56- 41 48- 46 57.7 51.1 100.0 75.5
Mississippi 6 42- 51 41- 54 45.2 43.2 0.1 0.0
Montana 3 36- 54 43- 48 40.0 47.3 0.0 3.6
Nebraska 5 30- 57 42- 45 34.5 48.3 0.0 12.9
Nevada 5 44- 43 45- 41 50.6 52.3 64.4 93.4
New Hampshire 4 41- 47 43- 46 46.6 48.3 1.3 13.3
New Jersey 15 42- 45 45- 46 48.3 49.5 12.9 35.9
New Mexico 5 46- 49 44- 50 48.4 46.8 14.9 1.8
New York 31 55- 39 52- 43 58.5 54.7 100.0 99.9
North Carolina 15 40- 51 47- 47 44.0 50.0 0.0 50.0
North Dakota 3 33- 53 38- 44 38.4 46.3 0.0 0.8
Ohio 20 53- 42 45- 47 55.8 48.9 100.0 23.6
Oklahoma 7 42- 50 34- 57 45.7 37.4 0.2 0.0
Oregon 7 47- 46 51- 42 50.5 54.8 63.7 99.9
Pennsylvania 21 47- 38 47- 39 55.3 54.7 100.0 99.9
Rhode Island 4 54- 37 53- 38 59.3 58.2 100.0 100.0
South Carolina 8 42- 48 45- 48 46.7 48.4 1.5 14.5
South Dakota 3 30- 59 34- 51 33.7 40.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 11 38- 52 31- 58 42.2 34.8 0.0 0.0
Texas 34 42- 49 46- 47 46.2 49.5 0.6 35.9
Utah 5 27- 65 39- 50 29.3 43.8 0.0 0.0
Vermont 3 49- 39 63- 29 55.7 68.5 100.0 100.0
Virginia 13 39- 55 44- 52 41.5 45.8 0.0 0.3
Washington 11 43- 46 48- 43 48.3 52.7 13.3 96.3
West Virginia 5 47- 42 35- 53 52.8 39.8 96.6 0.0
Wisconsin 10 46- 46 49- 44 50.0 52.7 50.0 96.0
Wyoming 3 28- 61 35- 54 31.5 39.3 0.0 0.0