| | Most recent state polls |
Shares from polls (%) |
Probability of winning
in November |
| state | votes |
Clinton-McCain | Obama-McCain |
Clinton | Obama |
Clinton | Obama |
|---|
| Alabama |
9 |
34- 60 |
32- 64 |
36.2 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
32- 57 |
43- 48 |
36.0 |
47.3 |
0.0 |
3.6 |
| Arizona |
10 |
34- 56 |
33- 55 |
37.8 |
37.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
43- 50 |
30- 59 |
46.2 |
33.7 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
| California |
55 |
53- 40 |
50- 43 |
57.0 |
53.8 |
100.0 |
99.3 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
45- 42 |
52- 35 |
51.7 |
59.8 |
86.9 |
100.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
38- 52 |
46- 46 |
42.2 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
| D.C. |
3 |
90- 9 |
90- 9 |
90.9 |
90.9 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| Delaware |
3 |
46- 41 |
50- 41 |
52.9 |
54.9 |
96.9 |
99.9 |
| Florida |
27 |
45- 44 |
38- 53 |
50.6 |
41.8 |
64.1 |
0.0 |
| Georgia |
15 |
34- 54 |
40- 53 |
38.6 |
43.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
43- 39 |
61- 31 |
52.4 |
66.3 |
94.4 |
100.0 |
| Idaho |
4 |
27- 63 |
39- 52 |
30.0 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Illinois |
21 |
48- 37 |
60- 31 |
56.5 |
65.9 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| Indiana |
11 |
36- 53 |
41- 50 |
40.4 |
45.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Iowa |
7 |
42- 48 |
49- 42 |
46.7 |
53.8 |
1.5 |
99.4 |
| Kansas |
6 |
36- 57 |
37- 54 |
38.7 |
40.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
46- 48 |
29- 63 |
48.9 |
31.5 |
24.2 |
0.0 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
36- 58 |
41- 52 |
38.3 |
44.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Maine |
4 |
47- 42 |
49- 39 |
52.8 |
55.7 |
96.6 |
100.0 |
| Maryland |
10 |
49- 40 |
53- 40 |
55.1 |
57.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| Missouri |
11 |
47- 46 |
42- 50 |
50.5 |
45.7 |
63.7 |
0.2 |
| Michigan |
17 |
37- 46 |
43- 41 |
44.6 |
51.2 |
0.0 |
77.9 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
47- 46 |
49- 43 |
50.5 |
53.3 |
63.7 |
98.3 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
56- 41 |
48- 46 |
57.7 |
51.1 |
100.0 |
75.5 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
42- 51 |
41- 54 |
45.2 |
43.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Montana |
3 |
36- 54 |
43- 48 |
40.0 |
47.3 |
0.0 |
3.6 |
| Nebraska |
5 |
30- 57 |
42- 45 |
34.5 |
48.3 |
0.0 |
12.9 |
| Nevada |
5 |
44- 43 |
45- 41 |
50.6 |
52.3 |
64.4 |
93.4 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
41- 47 |
43- 46 |
46.6 |
48.3 |
1.3 |
13.3 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
42- 45 |
45- 46 |
48.3 |
49.5 |
12.9 |
35.9 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
46- 49 |
44- 50 |
48.4 |
46.8 |
14.9 |
1.8 |
| New York |
31 |
55- 39 |
52- 43 |
58.5 |
54.7 |
100.0 |
99.9 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
40- 51 |
47- 47 |
44.0 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
33- 53 |
38- 44 |
38.4 |
46.3 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
| Ohio |
20 |
53- 42 |
45- 47 |
55.8 |
48.9 |
100.0 |
23.6 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
42- 50 |
34- 57 |
45.7 |
37.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
47- 46 |
51- 42 |
50.5 |
54.8 |
63.7 |
99.9 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
47- 38 |
47- 39 |
55.3 |
54.7 |
100.0 |
99.9 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
54- 37 |
53- 38 |
59.3 |
58.2 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
42- 48 |
45- 48 |
46.7 |
48.4 |
1.5 |
14.5 |
| South Dakota |
3 |
30- 59 |
34- 51 |
33.7 |
40.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
11 |
38- 52 |
31- 58 |
42.2 |
34.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Texas |
34 |
42- 49 |
46- 47 |
46.2 |
49.5 |
0.6 |
35.9 |
| Utah |
5 |
27- 65 |
39- 50 |
29.3 |
43.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Vermont |
3 |
49- 39 |
63- 29 |
55.7 |
68.5 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
39- 55 |
44- 52 |
41.5 |
45.8 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Washington |
11 |
43- 46 |
48- 43 |
48.3 |
52.7 |
13.3 |
96.3 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
47- 42 |
35- 53 |
52.8 |
39.8 |
96.6 |
0.0 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
46- 46 |
49- 44 |
50.0 |
52.7 |
50.0 |
96.0 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
28- 61 |
35- 54 |
31.5 |
39.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |