Most recent state polls		Shares from polls (%)		Probability of winning in November
state	votes	Clinton-McCain	Obama-McCain	Clinton	Obama	Clinton	Obama
Alabama	9	40- 51	37- 55	44.0	40.2	0.0	0.0
Alaska	3	32- 57	43- 48	36.0	47.3	0.0	3.6
Arizona	10	34- 56	33- 55	37.8	37.5	0.0	0.0
Arkansas	6	43- 50	30- 59	46.2	33.7	0.7	0.0
California	55	56- 38	54- 40	59.6	57.4	100.0	100.0
Connecticut	7	45- 42	52- 35	51.7	59.8	86.9	100.0
Colorado	9	38- 52	46- 46	42.2	50.0	0.0	50.0
D.C.	3	90- 9	90- 9	90.9	90.9	100.0	100.0
Delaware	3	46- 41	50- 41	52.9	54.9	96.9	99.9
Florida	27	45- 44	38- 53	50.6	41.8	64.1	0.0
Georgia	15	34- 54	40- 53	38.6	43.0	0.0	0.0
Hawaii	4	43- 39	61- 31	52.4	66.3	94.4	100.0
Idaho	4	27- 63	39- 52	30.0	42.9	0.0	0.0
Illinois	21	48- 37	60- 31	56.5	65.9	100.0	100.0
Indiana	11	36- 53	41- 50	40.4	45.1	0.0	0.1
Iowa	7	36- 51	46- 42	41.4	52.3	0.0	93.1
Kansas	6	36- 55	39- 51	39.6	43.3	0.0	0.0
Kentucky	8	43- 53	28- 64	44.8	30.4	0.0	0.0
Louisiana	9	36- 58	41- 52	38.3	44.1	0.0	0.0
Maine	4	47- 42	49- 39	52.8	55.7	96.6	100.0
Maryland	10	49- 40	53- 40	55.1	57.0	100.0	100.0
Missouri	11	41- 50	38- 53	45.1	41.8	0.1	0.0
Michigan	17	37- 46	43- 41	44.6	51.2	0.0	77.9
Minnesota	10	46- 47	47- 43	49.5	52.2	35.9	92.6
Massachusetts	12	54- 35	49- 42	60.7	53.8	100.0	99.4
Mississippi	6	42- 51	41- 54	45.2	43.2	0.1	0.0
Montana	3	36- 54	43- 48	40.0	47.3	0.0	3.6
Nebraska	5	30- 57	42- 45	34.5	48.3	0.0	12.9
Nevada	5	44- 43	45- 41	50.6	52.3	64.4	93.4
New Hampshire	4	41- 47	43- 46	46.6	48.3	1.3	13.3
New Jersey	15	42- 45	45- 46	48.3	49.5	12.9	35.9
New Mexico	5	43- 46	45- 42	48.3	51.7	13.3	86.9
New York	31	48- 46	46- 48	51.1	48.9	75.5	24.2
North Carolina	15	40- 51	47- 47	44.0	50.0	0.0	50.0
North Dakota	3	33- 53	38- 44	38.4	46.3	0.0	0.8
Ohio	20	42- 47	40- 47	47.2	46.0	3.3	0.4
Oklahoma	7	42- 50	34- 57	45.7	37.4	0.2	0.0
Oregon	7	40- 46	48- 42	46.5	53.3	1.1	98.5
Pennsylvania	21	47- 38	47- 39	55.3	54.7	100.0	99.9
Rhode Island	4	54- 37	53- 38	59.3	58.2	100.0	100.0
South Carolina	8	42- 48	45- 48	46.7	48.4	1.5	14.5
South Dakota	3	30- 59	34- 51	33.7	40.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	11	38- 52	31- 58	42.2	34.8	0.0	0.0
Texas	34	42- 49	46- 47	46.2	49.5	0.6	35.9
Utah	5	27- 65	39- 50	29.3	43.8	0.0	0.0
Vermont	3	49- 39	63- 29	55.7	68.5	100.0	100.0
Virginia	13	36- 58	41- 52	38.3	44.1	0.0	0.0
Washington	11	43- 46	48- 43	48.3	52.7	13.3	96.3
West Virginia	5	47- 42	35- 53	52.8	39.8	96.6	0.0
Wisconsin	10	42- 46	46- 42	47.7	52.3	6.8	93.1
Wyoming	3	28- 61	35- 54	31.5	39.3	0.0	0.0