I compared April 12 (probability of winning: zero) with April 13 (probability of winning: 17%). The mean number of electoral votes to Clinton are, respectively, 215 and 268 on those two dates (remember that 270 votes are needed to win). There were lots of new polls on April 13, with big changes in Missouri (11 electoral votes), Minnesota (10), New York (31), and most importantly Ohio, where Clinton goes from 42-47 vs Mcain on April 12 (effectively losing the state) to 52-43 (which is tantamount to winning the state with probability close to one). Ohio alone provides 20 electoral votes. Needless to say, pivotal states are important ... I will soon put up some conditional probabilities, conditioning on McCain winning some of the pivotal states.
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