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05/18/08 what really hurt obama are Florida and Ohio. In today's polls, Obama is losing 43-44 vs McCain in Florida, which implies a 35% probability of winning the state. Florida receives 27 electoral votes, therefore on average he's getting approximately 18 electoral votes less than Clinton that is predicted to win the state. In Ohio he's losing 42-43 in the polls, with a similar outcome. Ohio has 20 votes, therefore he can only add about 7 votes, while clinton is getting all 20.

If I was a superdelegate I would commission a very detailed survey of voters in those two states.