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05/21/08 I added conditional probabilities to the main table, computed assuming mccain wins pivotal states ohio or florida. Clinton has a good chance, but it looks like Mccain should concentrate his efforts in Florida

08/27/08 i added more interesting conditional probabilities including obama losing more pivotal states. I am now reporting only if they differ from the main statistics by more than 15%. Suggestions for more welcome!

06/06/08 I believe my poll data source has changed url, and has stopped updating the "obama" polls file, reporting only presidential pollls as rep vs. dem. According to the most recent polls, obama would have 91.8% probability of winning, and 51.5% even if mccain wins Ohio. I have emailed him to clarify the url issue, but haven't updated the data on the tables.

As soon as hillary says something, I will take down hillary's data from the main site. I bet this will boost linkage of the site.

05/08/08 I checked some of the days where Clinton's probability of winning is zero in the chart. Those zeros seem to make sense.

I compared April 12 (probability of winning: zero) with April 13 (probability of winning: 17%). The mean number of electoral votes to Clinton are, respectively, 215 and 268 on those two dates (remember that 270 votes are needed to win). There were lots of new polls on April 13, with big changes in Missouri (11 electoral votes), Minnesota (10), New York (31), and most importantly Ohio, where Clinton goes from 42-47 vs Mcain on April 12 (effectively losing the state) to 52-43 (which is tantamount to winning the state with probability close to one). Ohio alone provides 20 electoral votes. Needless to say, pivotal states are important ... I will soon put up some conditional probabilities, conditioning on McCain winning some of the pivotal states.

06/06/08 I corrected Obama's predictions using the new url; Andy Tanenbaum of electoral-vote.com confimed that the old urls are retired. I'm still keeping hillary's results because an op-ed on todays' nyt reports a similar style predictions from a competing web site. They predict obama losing in November against McCain, and Hillary winning; however, I believe their methodology has little theoretical bearing.

04/27/08 I finally managed to get the predictor running, with Clinton's and Obama's state level polls. It should be updating daily around 1am CET. The documentation is not there yet, I have only managed to copy the old stuff from the 2004 site at minnesota. The site style is not ready yet, but I'm getting there. Be patient.

10/17/08 I have added a worst-case scenario for obama, in which he loses 7 pivotal states where McCain is concentrating campaigning efforts. Karl Rove wrote an article about that, he's right that this is a possibility for McCain, even if quite remote.

05/20/08 I have added the electoral votes distribution chart to the main homepage display. I will explain what it is when I find some time :-)

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