"But if obama loses ...", Dear Andrea, I understand that the ca. 22% prob of an Obama victory in the event of defeat in several key swing states is generated from the same simulation. But, looking at the electoral map is there a one in five probability that OB will construct 270 votes out of the next most winnable swing states:ND, WV, MT, GA? Isn't that prob closer to 10%. If a scenario occurred affecting the swing states you postulated this could infer a shift in national not state voting. Assuming this, the prob. of OB getting to 270 votes via ND et al is 0%. Best wishes.

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